Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3191 · OAK → PHX
departs 3:40 PM PT · arrives 5:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 68%
Mon 11/2 32%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.