Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3191 · OAK → PHX
departs 2:59 PM PT · arrives 6:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 32%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.