Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3224 · OGG → SAN
departs 9:55 PM HT · arrives 4:56 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 15%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 19%
Fri 11/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
9pm departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.