Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3224 · OGG → SAN
departs 9:55 PM HT · arrives 5:07 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 15%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 19%
Fri 11/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
9pm departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.