Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3401 · SAN → PHX
departs 5:58 PM PT · arrives 7:22 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 84%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.