Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3401 · SAN → PHX
departs 6:33 PM PT · arrives 8:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Sat 10/31 46%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 31%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
84%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
84%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.