Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 3857 · BNA → DAL
departs 8:06 PM CT · arrives 10:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.