Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3857 · BNA → DAL
departs 8:06 PM CT · arrives 10:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.