Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3904
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3904 · SMF → BUR
departs 5:38 PM PT · arrives 7:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 99%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 26%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.