Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3904
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3904 · SMF → BUR
departs 4:52 PM PT · arrives 6:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 99%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 26%
Thu 11/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.