Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3970
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3970 · SMF → SAN
departs 5:54 PM PT · arrives 7:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 54%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.