Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3970
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3970 · SMF → SAN
departs 7:31 PM PT · arrives 9:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 41%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.