Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3982
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3982 · SMF → SNA
departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.