Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3982
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3982 · SMF → SNA
departs 7:05 PM PT · arrives 8:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 18%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.