Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4094
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4094 · STL → MCO
departs 4:47 PM CT · arrives 8:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.