Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4094
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4094 · STL → MCO
departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 30%
Thu 11/5 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.53333 mi Precip 0.08 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.