Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4195
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 4195 · HNL → LIH
departs 8:43 PM HT · arrives 9:41 PM HT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 12%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LIH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIH?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LIH that day
↑
LIH is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 7% of the time recently
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LIH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.