Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 4249 · DEN → MEM
departs 4:44 PM MT · arrives 8:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 56%
Tue 11/3 45%
Wed 11/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.