Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4249 · DEN → MEM
departs 8:38 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 45%
Wed 11/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.