Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 4436 · PHX → HOU
departs 3:29 PM MT · arrives 8:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 68%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at HOU that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.