Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4436 · PHX → HOU
departs 8:19 PM MT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
72%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
72%
Yes 72%
No 28%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at HOU that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.64 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.