Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Today
WN 4473 · BNA → PIT
departs 5:47 PM CT · arrives 8:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 23%
Thu 11/5 27%
Fri 11/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.