Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4597 · DEN → DSM
departs 5:07 PM MT · arrives 7:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
DSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.