Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4597 · DEN → DSM
departs 6:52 PM MT · arrives 9:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed – in 24h
–
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.