Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4610
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4610 · LAS → RNO
departs 5:33 PM PT · arrives 7:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 34%
Thu 11/5 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.