Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4990 · MCO → BHM
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 8:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 64%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.