Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4990 · MCO → BHM
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 46%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 933 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.