Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 585 · BNA → LAS
departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 10:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 24%
Thu 11/5 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.