Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 585 · BNA → LAS
departs 10:41 PM CT · arrives 12:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 24%
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.