Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 839 · MIA → MDW
departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.