Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 8505 · PHX → PAE
departs 9:20 PM MT · arrives 11:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 64%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PAE
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
PAE (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,167 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.