Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 8505 · PHX → PAE
departs 8:34 PM MT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
36%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at PAE that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.78 in
PAE (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.