Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1027 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1027 · MIA → GUA

departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM CST

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at GUA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.64 in

GUA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1027 · MIA → GUA

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUA?