Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1054 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1054 · MIA → BOS

departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 12:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±8 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.29 in

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1054 · MIA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?