Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1174 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1174 · JFK → MIA

departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 10:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1174 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?