Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1393 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1393 · CLT → DSM

departs 10:23 PM ET · arrives 11:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1393 · CLT → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?