Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1514 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1514 · DFW → ELP

departs 8:56 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±10 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1514 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?