AA 1521 · MIA → AUS

departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.79 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1521 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?