Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1586SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1586 · MIA → JFK
departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
50%chance · ±2 pts−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.