Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1622 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1622 · MIA → LAS

departs 8:17 PM ET · arrives 10:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±11 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.29 in

LAS (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1622 · MIA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?