Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1656 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1656 · CLT → ATL

departs 10:57 PM ET · arrives 12:16 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,067 ft forecast at ATL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,067 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1656 · CLT → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?