Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1786 · DFW → CVG

departs 6:14 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±8 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

CVG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1786 · DFW → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?