AA 1891 · MIA → RDU

departs 1:47 PM ET · arrives 4:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.27 in

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1891 · MIA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?