Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1930 · RSW → CLT

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at RSW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.81 in

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1930 · RSW → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?