Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1951 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1951 · SAN → PHX

departs 4:47 PM PT · arrives 7:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.44 in

PHX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1951 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?