Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2150 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2150 · DFW → XNA

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 5:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2150 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?