Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2194 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2194 · MIA → ORD

departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±3 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.29 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2194 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?