AA 2290 · LAX → MIA

departs 12:01 AM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.30 in

MIA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2290 · LAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?