Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2323 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2323 · ORD → MIA

departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 9:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±5 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2323 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?