Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2443 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2443 · MCI → MIA

departs 5:19 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±9 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2443 · MCI → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?